Saturday, February 1, 2014

On girls-meeting probability theory

Today my topic is girls :) I've never written on it before, although it's definitely stated among my interest on the blog description. But now, after a bottle of a perfect Chilean Sauvignon Blanc, I have enough determination to admit that I was looking forward to flying anywhere in expectation of meeting some of nice examples with a broader outlook for interesting things in life than mine, plus being beautiful enough to forget about their stupidity if that wasn't the case :)
So, what do I have in that respect to date? The answer is really knocking down - nothing, or, better said, nobody. I've never been seated to a person I had really pleasant flight with, during all my travelings. Never, ever!!! Does it make me seem like a chronicle looser? Not at all! Last time I flew with Emirates I was seated alone in a 3-seat row on the overbooked flight, since 2 other travelers missed the boarding, effectively making me flying almost like a business class passenger on my longest flight so far. But the question forced me, as a person with a strong mathematical background, to calculate what the odds are of such a miss.
According to flightdairy I had 86 flight I could have recalled. According to the aircraft types, average capacity of the aircraft boarded was about 130 people. Being potentially seated with 1.7 people (due to the limited ability to communicate to an aisle-seated person, when taking window seat), my odds of not being seated next to an attractive girl (here, I assume, below real-world levels, of at least 1 hot girl) are (1 - 1.7/128) = 0.9867. So, in 86 flights, my odds of meeting no one who falls into the target category are approximately 0.32, which is much more than I expected. And which makes me think that I just haven't flown enough, and that's why I'm planning my next trip to Israel in May :) It also reminded me of my favorite tennis player's, Stanislas Vavrinka, tatoo - "Ever tried. Ever failed. No matter. Try Again. Fail again. Fail better."